U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve and Fed Funds Target Rate Historically, the Fed doesn’t pivot policy until a recession arrives and the 10Y-3M US Treasury yield curve inverts. Is it really different this time? Image: Morgan…
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate Less Core PCE vs. Fed Funds Rate It seems unlikely that the Fed will pause before the federal funds rate rises above the core PCE rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth…
Fed and Dow Jones Industrial Average Is the bear market far from over as recession risks mount? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. Headline CPI and 1-Year and 2-Year Breakevens Is the surge in U.S. inflation transitory? Image: Alpine Macro
Emerging Markets vs. U.S. Financial Conditions Historically, tightening financial conditions do not bode well for emerging markets. Image: Richardson Wealth
Equities 12-Week MA Flows vs. Net % FMS OW Equities Should equity investors expect a sharp recession for the bull market to resume? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Housing Bubbles – Real House Prices vs. House Prices / Disposable Income Is an housing crash on the horizon? Image: MBR Partners
Stock Market Strength vs. Volatility 2022 starts to smell like 2008. Are U.S. stocks in a secular bear market? Image: Willie Delwiche
Credit – Euro Real Estate IG Bond Spread The risk of a credit event has increased significantly this year. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 E-mini Futures Market Depth (Liquidity) S&P 500 E-mini futures market liquidity remains weak. Lack of liquidity tends to lead to violent market moves. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Housing – U.S. Existing Homes Sales U.S. home prices don’t go up forever. Image: The Daily Shot