Gold Price Forecast Goldman Sachs forecasts that the price of gold will reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven primarily by sustained demand from central banks and ETFs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Share of Tariff Cost Burden While the importer of record pays the tariff legally, the economic cost of tariffs is distributed across U.S. consumers, U.S. businesses that rely on imports, and foreign exporters. Image: Goldman…

International vs. Domestic Exposure Export-oriented U.S. stocks surged after the tariff pause announcement, reflecting growing investor optimism over easing trade tensions—though potential tariff policy changes remain key factors to watch. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Aggregate Earnings Beat A 5% earnings beat reflects the typical surprises seen in past quarters and suggests that actual reported earnings will modestly exceed consensus estimates, consistent with the historical pattern of positive…

Evolution of Earnings Consensus After an initial wave of downward revisions, Q2 2025 consensus earnings estimates have stabilized and remained relatively flat over the past six weeks, with no significant cuts reported recently. Image: Deutsche…

S&P 500 Annual Price Returns The S&P 500’s performance in 2025 so far aligns with median historical gains seen during non-recessionary periods. The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, driven by moderate earnings growth and supportive…

S&P 500 EPS While Q2 2025 is expected to see a marked deceleration in S&P 500 EPS growth to 4% year-over-year, consensus forecasts call for a rebound and robust earnings expansion in the second half…

S&P 500 Performance Based on Sector-Level Strength Long-term S&P 500 gains have historically followed periods of either broad market participation, where over eight sectors trade above their 200-day moving average, or extreme oversold conditions, with…

Change in S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Consensus Despite being larger than average, the recent -4% consensus EPS cut is not unprecedented and mirrors past adjustments during periods of heightened uncertainty such as tariff announcements or…

U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator – Equity Positioning A reading of 0.0 on the Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator signals neutral sentiment, which—historically—has often been followed by positive S&P 500 returns in the subsequent month.…

Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements If the average effective U.S. tariff rate rises to 20.7%, the economic impact could be substantial. Each 1 percentage point increase in the tariff…