Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple The five largest S&P 500 stocks are trading well above their historical valuation norms—reflecting strong investor confidence in their earnings power and growth prospects—yet their valuations remain below…
S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish, slashing their net long positions in major U.S. equity index futures—E-mini S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P Midcap, and Russell 2000—to levels not seen…
Gold Spot Price and Russell 3000 Gold Miners Subindustry Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold over the next 12 months, projecting a 14% rise driven by central bank demand and anticipated rate cuts, with even…
S&P 500 vs. 20+-Year U.S. Treasuries U.S. stocks continue to outperform bonds in an ongoing post-pandemic risk-on rally, despite periods of volatility. Market sentiment remains tilted toward risk assets. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Labor Market – Job Openings per Unemployed Worker The ratio of U.S. job openings to unemployed workers below 1 indicates labor market weakness, with policy uncertainty and slowing demand increasing the likelihood of a…
Oil Prices and Events Higher oil prices function like a tax, reducing disposable income and increasing business costs, which can slow growth or cause recessions. However, these spikes are typically brief as demand falls and…
Aggregate Financial Asset Allocation Among Households, Mutual Funds, Pension Funds, and Foreign Investors Investor allocation to equities has reached an all-time high, driven by retail enthusiasm and strong performance. However, rising valuations and concentrated leadership…
Valuation – S&P 500 CAPE Ratio with 10-Year Total Returns Valuations don’t matter—until they do. Over the past 150 years, high valuations have been a sign of poor forward returns, with negative real returns over…
Share of Top 5 Companies by Market Capitalization in the S&P 500 The U.S. equity market is highly concentrated in just a few mega-cap tech companies. While this does not definitively mean the U.S. is…
Valuation – PEG Ratio between U.S. and Europe The widening PEG ratio gap indicates that European stocks are trading at cheaper growth-adjusted valuations compared to U.S. stocks, supported by improving earnings growth prospects in Europe.…
U.S. Stock Market – Margin Debt and Free Cash Balances The current record margin debt, exceeding $1 trillion, signals heightened investor risk-taking and confidence; however, if the market falters, this elevated leverage could amplify volatility…