Probability of a Recession Starting in the Next 12 Months and Probability of Being in a Recession Market-based indicators have priced a higher probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months. Image: Goldman…

U.S. Inflation vs. Fed Funds and S&P 500 Historically, the combination of high inflation with Fed tightening monetary policy does not bode well for the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice

Wars – S&P 500 in Real Terms and U.S. CPI Inflation Will inflation hurt U.S. equity returns? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. ISM New Orders Less ISM Inventories Inventory rebuild suggests a sharp fall in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Mortgage Servicing Costs (Leading Indicator) Mortgage servicing costs tend to lead the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI by 12 months. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 and U.S. Recession Historically, bull market peaks tend to occur 6 months before the start of a recession. Image: Credit Suisse Research

Labor Market – U.S. Jobs-Workers Gap A tight labor market contributes to wage inflation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Bitcoin Price and Blockchain-Exposed Stocks Indexed Return vs. S&P 500 The basket of blockchain-exposed stocks tends to track Bitcoin and can be a way to diversify a portfolio. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Antifragile Assets – 10-15Y Government Bonds, HFR Hedge Funds Index and Gold, Total Returns Should investors favor Chinese government bonds? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Performance – COVID-19 Reopening vs. Lockdown Portfolio and U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield BofA expects 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise and the “reopening portfolio” to fall. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Bitcoin Market Capitalization and Global M2 Money Supply Bitcoin could fall if global M2 money supply continues to slow. Image: Morgan Stanley Research