Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has delivered returns far above its historical norm over the past three years, but such strength will be hard to repeat given where valuations…

Global Earnings Growth Global earnings growth has climbed about 15% year-on-year in Q4 2025, the strongest pace in years, powered by robust gains in U.S. tech and a resurgence across emerging markets. Image: Deutsche Bank…

DM Manufacturing PMI vs. Global Central Bank Decision Index This year’s key macro theme is a global growth rebound, fueled by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for a fresh…

S&P 500 at the Start of a Presidential Term The S&P 500 experienced its worst start to a U.S. presidential term in decades after the president’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Hopes tied to tax…

S&P 500 Based on the Chinese Zodiac Signs The Year of the Horse has begun. Playful as zodiac signs may be on market trends, the Year of the Horse usually trots rather than gallops, with…

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 Software Total Return Bitcoin has been trading hand in hand with U.S. software names. Its current drawdown may stick around for a while if the pressure on tech doesn’t ease. But…

U.S. Inflation – Cleveland Median CPI vs. M2 Savings Deposits When fiscal policy drives money creation, inflation risk jumps. Spending and liquidity rise together, and before long, too much money chases too few goods. Recent…

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Purchasing Power Parity Valuation The U.S. dollar remains richly valued on key metrics, leaving it exposed to further downside despite recent softness. Image: TS Lombard

Tax Refunds and U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity fund inflows tend to pick up sharply during tax refund season. History suggests the next few weeks could see another wave of cash hitting the market.…

LME Copper Copper surged on shrinking supply and a weaker dollar, with investors wagering that demand from factories, clean energy, and AI will stay strong despite limited mine output. Image: Bloomberg

CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return With the CAPE10 ratio hovering near rarely seen highs, the market is sending a warning signal. Past cycles point to negative real returns ahead. In other words,…