Buybacks – S&P 500 Companies in Blackout Period S&P 500 companies are heading into their blackout window ahead of earnings season, a period when buyback activity tends to fade—though not completely disappear—for the next few…

Survey – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields While expectations tilt toward falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, plenty of voices argue for a rise, citing everything from sticky inflation to uncertain rate cuts and uneven economic growth.…

Equities – Global Valuation Range U.S. stocks remain priced at a hefty premium, while valuations outside the U.S. are closer to historical norms. That leaves global markets offering stronger relative value, even if they’re not…

S&P 500 Compared to Its 200-Day Moving Average With the S&P 500 sitting 10% above its 200-day moving average, the market looks firmly bullish, suggesting more upside potential until a local peak around 13–15% above…

S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Seasonality tends to favor the bulls into year-end. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has gained more than 4% on average in the fourth quarter, posting positive returns 80% of…

Scatter Plot Returns of P/E Multiples and S&P 500 1-Year Returns The weak link between the P/E ratio and the S&P 500’s one-year performance shows why investors are better off keeping their eyes on the…

S&P 500 and Nasdaq vs. 1996-2001 Analog With policy easing expected to run into 2026, will U.S. equities continue to mirror the boom years of 1996 to 2001? Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Tight high-yield spreads signal strong market confidence, but they also raise red flags by potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities and feeding investor complacency by making risks seem less significant than they…

Underlying U.S. Real GDP Growth The AI-driven tech boom has kept the U.S. economy from slipping into recession in 2025, but whether the rally can last is far from certain—and a pullback in investment could…

Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates Optimism over 2026 earnings is unusually high, increasing the risk of downward revisions in coming quarters. This marks the largest deviation from the long-term earnings growth trend. Image: Real Investment…