Prediction for U.S. GDP Growth from Q42020 to Q42021 32 leading academic economists do not see significantly higher GDP growth under Donald Trump or Joe Biden, as long as the current control of Congress remains…
Coronavirus Vaccine in the U.S. Superforecasters see a 53% probability that 25 million doses of an FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine will be available by March 2021 vs. 69% two weeks ago. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
U.S. Dollar vs. Equities A stronger U.S. dollar suggests weaker equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Retail Trades and Individual Investors Retail investors are driving the recent bull market. Image: Financial Times
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index – Average Percent Change Each Month – 1928-2020 Historically, September has been challenging for the S&P 500. Image: Yardeni Research
Periods of S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar Weakness A period of weakness in the U.S. dollar is not necessarily good news for investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Coronavirus Vaccine and Jet Fuel Demand Goldman Sachs expects jet fuel demand to recover next year, with the availability of a coronavirus vaccine by the second-quarter of 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Probability of Vice President Biden Winning 2020 Presidential Election Is Joe Biden’s advantage underestimated? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. GDP Forecasts (2020/2023) Goldman Sachs is lowering its Q4 GDP growth forecast from 6% to 3% QoQ, on the lack of further fiscal support. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields and S&P 500 Following 2016 Election Results Goldman Sachs expects U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to increase under unified Democratic control of government, reflecting the possibility of a substantial increase…
S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index vs. S&P 500 Equally-Weighted Index The current gap between the equal- and cap-weighted indexes has generally ended with the underperformance of mega-cap stocks. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond