Money Supply to GDP vs. Equities and Bonds
Money Supply to GDP vs. Equities and Bonds Historically, when money supply exceeds nominal GDP growth, it tends to be bullish for stocks and bonds. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. Treasury 30Y-5Y Yield Curve and Probability of U.S. Senate Democratic Control
U.S. Treasury 30Y-5Y Yield Curve and Probability of U.S. Senate Democratic Control A Democratic sweep is a possibility, as the yield curve now tracks the likelihood of Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Image: BofA…
GDP and Shape of Recovery
GDP and Shape of Recovery V-shaped or Swoosh? This chart shows the alphabet of economic recovery scenarios. Image: Financial Times
Actual 10-Year Rate vs. Forecasts for the 10-Year Rate
Actual 10-Year Rate vs. Forecasts for the 10-Year Rate This chart highlights that the market has been wrong predicting higher long rates. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
More than 90% of Stocks above 50-Day Moving Average
More than 90% of Stocks above 50-Day Moving Average Short-term overbought, but historically, more than 90% of stocks above the 50-day moving average is bullish. Image: Strategas Research Partners
EU Recovery Funds and Proposed Allocation of Fund by Country
EU Recovery Funds and Proposed Allocation of Fund by Country The European Commission is proposing a 750 billion euro recovery fund. This chart shows who gets what as a percentage of GDP. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. GDP vs. Current Activity Indicator (CAI)
U.S. GDP vs. Current Activity Indicator (CAI) This chart from Goldman Sachs suggests U.S. GDP estimate for 2020 and 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 (SPY) After Hours vs. Regular Trading Performance
S&P 500 (SPY) After Hours vs. Regular Trading Performance This year, market returns were achieved during regular trading hours. Buying the open (SPY) and selling the close: +16.9% YTD (for informational purpose only, not investment…
ETF Flows by Asset Type
ETF Flows by Asset Type As the chart shows, investors are finally buying equity ETFs again, but fixed-income remains the champ. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
More than 90% of S&P 500 Index Components above their 50-Day Moving Average
More than 90% of S&P 500 Index Components above their 50-Day Moving Average The past 11 times that more than 90% of S&P 500 index components were above their 50-day moving average, the S&P 500…
Bitcoin: Currency or Asset Class? (Price and Volatility)
Bitcoin: Currency or Asset Class? (Price and Volatility) This chart puts into perspective the daily and annualized volatility of Bitcoin. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research