Expected Fed Funds Rate, Negative Interest Rates and 2-Year Treasury Yield Negative U.S. yields are in sight, as Fed funds futures for June 2021 imply an expected negative rate of -0.03%. Image: Fidelity Investments
Probability of Recovery: S&P 500 vs. Economic Data This chart shows the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and economic data. Image: J.P. Morgan
Quarterly Returns for All Public Pensions Plans Public pension plans lost a median of 13.2% in the first quarter of 2020. It was the lowest return in about 40 years. Image: Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison…
Fed Quantitative Easing (QE) and NTM P/E After the Fed launched quantitative easing (QE), history suggests that there is a positive correlation between QE and a rising stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments
FANGMAN Stocks Leading in Recovery An equal weight FANGMAN index is back at all-time highs. FANGMAN refers to Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia. Image: Richardson Wealth
Delinquency – U.S. Unemployment Rate and Mortgage Loans Past Due The rising unemployment rate in the United States should increase the delinquency rate. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Recession Job Losses Will the U.S. economy see a V-shaped recovery? This chart shows the latest two months of job losses compared with recessions since World War II. Image: CNBC
S&P 500 Comparison to 2000 and 2008 This chart shows the most recent stock market crash compared to the bear markets of 2000 and 2008. Image: Nautilus Research
Coronavirus Baseline Hit to the Level of U.S. Real GDP In years-on-years terms, Goldman Sachs expects -12.6% in Q2, -7.3% in Q3, -5.4% in Q4, and -6.5% for the whole year of 2020. Image: Goldman…
GWIM Flows to Cash 4WMA BofA private clients have raised record amounts of cash amid uncertainty in the global economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Stocks – U.S. Relative to Developed Markets Excluding U.S. Chart suggesting that the structural outperformance of U.S. stocks is vulnerable to an industrial recovery. Image: BCA Research