S&P 500 and Big Reversal Years Could the S&P 500 end the year positive? After a loss of more than 30%, it would be the first year ever. Image: LPL Research

S&P 500 vs. Weekly Economic Index The Weekly Economic Index fell below the trough of the Great Recession, while the S&P500 has rallied 28% from the 23 March low and retraced 50% of the recent…

Number of Months U.S. Economy in Recession Since 1918, the average U.S. recession has lasted about 13 months. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. Correlation Between GDP and Equity Market This chart shows the correlation between U.S. GDP and U.S. equity market (R² = 0.50). U.S. equity prices suggest U.S. GDP growth of 0.7% YoY in Q3 2020.…

G4 GDP Forecast Deutsche Bank expects G4 GDP levels to remain well below the pre-crisis trend. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Quantitative Easing – Net Asset Purchases for G-7 Central Banks Net asset purchases for G-7 central banks approached $1.4 trillion in March. To put things in perspective, this is more than five times higher than…

Unemployment – April 2020 Expected U.S. Job Losses by Industry This chart suggests the job losses expected in April 2020 by industry in the United States. Image: Oxford Economics

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and S&P Bear/Base/Bull Targets Morgan Stanley raises its year-end S&P Bear/Base/Bull targets to 2500/3000/3250, as the equity risk premium could quickly disappear. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

CTAs’ Net Position in S&P 500 Futures vs. S&P 500 Chart suggesting that there would be less short squeezes, as CTAs are covering short S&P 500 future positions. Image: Nomura

S&P 500 Forward 2-Year P/E Ratio The U.S. stock market is pricing in a V-shaped economic recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Prediction for Near-Term S&P 500 Downside to 2,000 Goldman Sachs suggests that equity markets are unlikely to make new lows, if the U.S. doesn’t have a second surge in infections after the economy reopens. The…