Financial Stress Index and Financial Conditions Index If financial conditions tighten sharply, this suggests a coming slowdown or recession. Currently, the St. Louis Financial Stress Index and the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index are…

U.S. Output Gap (% of potential GDP) and Inflation U.S. output gap (% of potential GDP) tends to lead underlying core PCE by 12 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management

Inequality – Concentration of Equities Ownership by Wealth Class in the U.S. The top 1% of households owns equities, while the bottom 50% of households owns real estate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance and Global Viral Outbreaks This chart highlights the S&P performance through prior global viral outbreaks. Image: Truist

Inequality – Net Saving by Wealth Class in the U.S. This chart shows that the savings rate for the bottom 90% of the U.S. population is negative since the 1990s. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio Chart showing that the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains at high level, above its historical range. Image: Fidelity Investments

Volatility – Gamma Transition Level and VIX Gamma positioning indicators suggest more volatility ahead. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Global Stock Markets Total Returns in 2019 Chart showing how major global stock markets performed in 2019. Image: Fidelity Investments

Inflation – The Rising Cost of U.S. Education and Health Care The costs of health care and education have risen faster than other goods. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Gold to Oil Ratio Chart suggesting that the gold to oil ratio (at two standard deviations of the mean), is not expected to remain at these levels for long. Image: Pictet Asset Management

S&P 500 Technology – Percentage Above/Below 200-Day Moving Average Chart suggesting that the S&P 500’s tech sector is the most overbought since the internet bubble. Image: BofA Global Research