What is the Probability that the U.S. Enters an Economic Recession over the Next 12 Months? The latest edition of BofA’s US credit investor survey shows that recession fears have dropped to 16.3%. Image: BofA…
Share of Top 5 Companies in the S&P 500 The S&P 500 has become abnormally concentrated, creating a certain vulnerability. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
1920s and 1990s Bull Markets vs. Current Bull Market Chart showing that there is no “blow off top” in the current bull market, compared to 1920s and 1990s bull markets. Image: Stifel
Valuation – S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Treasury Bond This chart suggests that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a trend reversal, as the S&P 500 looks overbought vs. the 10-year Treasury bond. Image:…
Completed Chinese Direct Investment Transactions in Europe and North America Chinese investments in Europe and North America fell again last year. Is it over? Image: The Wall Street Journal
Risk & Return, and Sharpe Ratio This chart shows risk and return since 1970 and since the 2009 low, including the Sharpe ratio. Image: Fidelity Investments
Vanguard and U.S. Mutual Funds Is Vanguard getting too big as a firm? What about its impact on corporate America? Image: Financial Times
Aggregate CTAs Equity Exposure CTAs equity exposure also remains at a high level. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 – Performance since 2016 vs. Performance since 2019 The U.S. stock market is on fire. Will history repeat itself? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 and Caixin China Manufacturing PMI This chart suggests that the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Chinese Manufacturing PMI offers a better explanation since 2015. Image: Danske Bank Research
Incumbent Presidential Election Years Since 22nd Amendment Incumbent presidential election years have traditionally been good for equities, with an average return of 11.4% since 22nd amendment. Image: Morgan Stanley Research