Effect of the Trade War on U.S. Real GDP Growth Assuming no further escalation, the trade war drag on real GDP growth is expected to gradually fade over the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…

Small Cap Cyclical Sectors vs. Defensive Sectors Median Forward P/E Relative valuations for small-cap cyclicals versus small-cap defensives also remain near the 20-year lows. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Average Price Performance of Gold, Oil and Base Metals during Four Military Conflicts This chart shows the average price performance of gold, oil and base metals during the following military conflicts: 1980 Iran-Iraq War, 1990…

U.S. Stock Market – Valuation Metric Is the U.S. stock market overvalued? By historical standards, many traditional valuation metrics look expensive. Image: Charles Schwab

Global Economic Strength Indices (Imports/Exports, Confidence, Inflation) Global trade is recovering after a period of weakness. That’s good news for inflation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

Emerging Markets Exports Value and MSCI Emerging Markets 12m Trailing EPS Chart suggesting that EM corporate profits are linked to the global trade cycle. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

S&P 500 Index Total Return – Do the First 5 Days of a New Year Matter? Since 1950, when the first five days of a new year have been up more than 2%, the full…

S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio S&P 500 to 3,550? “Bull markets don’t die of old age” but the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 remains at high level. Image: Truist

Valuation – Largest Company in Terms of Market Value in the S&P 500 At current level, Apple is the largest publicly traded U.S. company. Image: Financial Times

BofA Global Luxury Demand Indicator The global luxury demand indicator is now negative and falls to its lowest level since Q2 2016. Image: BofA Global Research

Leverage in the U.S.: Households and Corporations This chart shows the divergence between U.S. non-financial corporations leverage and households leverage. U.S. corporation debt reached a record level of $10.12tn. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond