Morgan Stanley Forecasts a Subdued Decade for Market Returns Morgan Stanley forecasts anemic returns over the next 10 years, due to low yields, low growth and low inflation expectations. Image: Financial Times
Equity Yields vs. Bond Yields vs. Cash Yields Chart showing the large gap in yields between equities, bonds and cash. Image: J.P. Morgan
Cumulative Interest Rate Cuts in OECD Countries Central banks in OECD countries haven’t cut this much since the Great Financial Crisis. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
U.S. 10-Year Note Yield: Reaction to Recoveries From Global Slowdowns Past recoveries from global slowdowns suggest that the 10-year Treasury yield could increase. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
U.S. Corporate CCC-Rated Bonds Diverge During Trade War As the chart suggests, CCC-rated bonds are not the canary in the coal mine. The divergence in option-adjusted spreads between CCCs and higher-rated issues reflects the impact…
Valuation – Forward P/E Ratio From the valuation peak of January 2018, most P/E ratios have seen drawdowns of 20%-30%, making this feel like a bear market. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Price to Book Value vs. Future Returns The current S&P 500 price to book value suggests that equity market returns will be low over the next 10 years (R² = 0.86). Image: Tomasz…
S&P 500 Levels, Bank Projections Morgan Stanley is a bear, but Wall Street expects gains for the S&P 500 in 2020 Image: Financial Times
Yield Curve 10Y-2Y and U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Chart suggesting that the U.S. 2+10Y bond yield YoY (inverted) tends to lead the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index (YoY) by 18 months. U.S. PMI could bounce back…
JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rises to a seven-month high of 50.3, after having been in contraction territory. NBF Economics and Strategy
The 2020 S&P 500 Upside Level According to BofAML, history suggests a bullish setup for the S&P 500 in 2020, and a S&P 500 target of 3300-3600 in late 2020. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global…