U.S. Recessions – NBER Since 1850, this will be the first decade without a recession in the United States. Image: National Bureau of Economic Research

Tech Fund Flows Are tech fund inflows indicating a potential bubble? Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy

S&P 500 Volatility in 2020 Goldman Sachs economic model suggests volatility of 14.7 on average next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Conference Board Confidence Index of CEO vs. U.S. Real Business Investment The trade war has no winners and could curtail U.S. business investment further. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

U.S. Dollar Cycles U.S. dollar cycles are persistent and are counted in years. In the absence of a recession in the U.S. in 2020, the strength of the U.S. dollar should continue for some time.…

Inequality – Intergenerational Earnings Elasticity and Gini Coefficient Chart suggesting that social mobility cannot be achieved without greater equality (R² = 0.5) Image: Financial Times

Percentage of Time 60/40 Returns Were Positive or Outperformed Cash While cash remains an important component of financial stability, excessive cash holdings can hinder long-term wealth growth due to opportunity costs and inflation erosion. Image:…

S&P 500 Index vs. MSCI EAFE Index Largely due to structural headwinds, international stocks have underperformed U.S. stocks significantly in this bull market, over the last ten years. It could continue next year as well.…

Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Relative Returns Chart suggesting that small caps should outperform large caps over the next 10 years (R² = 0.42). Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity &…

S&P 500 % Above Previous Year’s Peak Is this a blow-off top? The S&P 500 is only 7.6% above the peak from 2018, and below the average of 8.5%. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC

Length of Economic Expansion and U.S. GDP Growth The current business cycle is the longest and weakest expansion. Image: Barclays Research