Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Smart Money Flow Index The Smart Money Flow Index currently suggests that the most probable short-term direction for the U.S. stock market is upward. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
S&P 500 Valuations The composite S&P 500 valuation indicator—which integrates PE ratios, equity risk premia, and price-based mean reversion factors—has recently reset to a level close to neutral, which is an encouraging sign. Image: Topdown…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day When bulls sense a market boom, bears are quick to dismiss it, claiming there’s “nothing to see here.” Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
University of Michigan Survey – Consumer Who Expect Higher Unemployment over the Next 12 Months The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers indicate that a significantly higher share of Americans now expect unemployment to…
Consensus Earnings Estimates Despite economic uncertainties and potential tariff impacts, downward revisions to 2025 EPS estimates have remained modest, underscoring their resilience. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Two-Day Returns for the S&P 500 The clustering of best and worst days underscores the importance of patience and discipline in investing. Selling after the worst days often means missing the best days that follow!…
S&P 500 Returns a Year After Spike in Policy Uncertainty Index The S&P 500 has a history of generating solid 12-month returns after periods of heightened policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Even bulls and bears are calling a truce this Easter Monday—time to trade market chaos for chocolate eggs! Happy Easter Monday, Everyone!🐰😎
U.S. True Financial Conditions Index The U.S. True Financial Conditions Index stands at 6, indicating a slightly accommodative financial environment. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Maximum S&P 500 Drawdowns and Recessions If the U.S. economy enters a recession due to Trump’s tariffs, the stock market could decline further. The market appears not to have fully priced in the risk of…
Contributions to Annualized U.S. PCE Growth The U.S. stock market’s recent underperformance is expected to reduce the wealth effect, turning it from a boost to a drag on consumption and increasing the risk of a…