U.S. Broad Nominal Trade-Weighted Dollar and 200-Day Moving Average After weeks of drift, the U.S. dollar’s rebound looks more than just noise, with key gauges—like the 200-day moving average—suggesting the move has technical legs, at…
U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Equal Weight Index / S&P 500 Index The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to its cap-weighted version has dropped to its weakest level since May 2003—a stark reminder of…
Equity Market and Share of the Biggest Sector in the U.S. History keeps repeating on Wall Street — when diversification fades, sector dominance rises. But it never lasts. Sooner or later, shifts in the economy,…
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Forward P/E Ratio The market is no bargain: the S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, versus 16 on average over two decades, while the Magnificent Seven stretch valuations…
Equity Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI U.S. Beijing’s early-2024 intervention lit a rocket under Chinese equities, leaving Wall Street in the dust. Fueled by stimulus and growing investor conviction, the rally could stretch further…
Global Median 10-Year Yield Across All Sample Economies The median 10-year government bond yield has risen from the rock-bottom levels of the pre-Covid years and early pandemic, returning to its long-term historical average — a…
S&P 500 Index – Trend Channel After a long, uninterrupted climb since 2009, the S&P 500’s secular bull market looks mature, with the long-term trend channel suggesting growing risks beneath the surface momentum. Image: Ned…
S&P 500 Returns After the 10 Strongest May-October Returns The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a May–October surge like this since 1950! History says momentum like this rarely fades—nine out of ten times, the rally kept…
S&P 500 Returns After >15% YTD End of October Big years tend to end bigger. When the S&P 500 is already up more than 15% by October’s close, November and December combined have extended the…
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts At All-Time Highs Bulls are smiling for good reason: Every time since 1983, rate cuts with the S&P 500 at record highs have been a winning formula — stocks…
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate Earnings momentum isn’t cracking. With 85% of S&P 500 companies smashing earnings estimates so far, bulls are dancing while recession talk fades to a whisper. Image: Deutsche Bank…