U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Minus ISM Manufacturing Index and Real U.S. Dollar Index This chart suggests that a strong dollar hurts U.S. manufacturers. Image: Oxford Economics
NFIB – U.S. Small Business Economics Trends U.S. small business economy and hiring plans remain strong. Image: BCA Research
Total Carbon Emissions by Country (CO2) China, the United States, and India account for almost half of the total global carbon emissions. Image: Global Carbon Project
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Manufacturing Production This chart shows the ISM survey (sentiment) versus the real world (hard data) and suggests it is not yet catastrophic. Image: Swedbank Research
S&P 500 Projection Based on Years When Index Gains at Least 15% by April The chart shows the S&P 500 projection based on years when the index gains at least 15% by April (11 times…
Global Corporate Bond Sales Companies sold a record amount of bonds in September. Yield-seeking investors were served up $434bn of new corporate bonds globally. Image: Financial Times
Earnings Estimate Progression The consensus growth estimate for Q3 earnings stands at -3.2%, but the earnings recovery seems better than 2016. The Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the U.S.…
U.S. Long-Term Business Cycle and ISM Manufacturing Index The risk of recession increases when the Macro Composite is above 90% and the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is falling. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into…
Owning the Highest-Cap S&P 500 Stock The S&P 500’s largest company may look like a safe bet, but it can still lag the broader market. Buying the biggest name in the index can be a…
U.S. Employment Outlook The outlook of U.S. employment continues to improve. In Q4 2019, 22% of U.S. employers plan to add to payrolls, 5% expect a decrease and 72% expect no change. Image: ManpowerGroup