ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. Yield Curve Inversion This chart suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index tends to trough 19 months after the U.S. (10Y-3M) yield curve inverts. Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Recession and Presidential Re-election If there isn’t a recession ahead of the U.S. presidential re-election, presidents have won every time since the First World War. The spreadsheet also shows that five of the seven…
Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER
Presidential Election – U.S. Presidential Score Sheet for the Final Year of the First Term Historically, a U.S. president is re-elected when at least consumer confidence and the unemployment rate improve. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Falling Real Yields Allow Zombie Companies to Live On The cost of extended monetary easing: the percentage of zombie companies continues to rise as U.S. 10-year real yields fall. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Returns Under Various Presidents since the Inception of the Dow Jones For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This spreadsheet shows the Dow Jones performance across different presidencies since 1896. Image: Ryan Detrick,…
S&P 500 Return Rest of Year If August Is Negative When August was negative, the S&P 500 was higher 14 of the last 14 times for the rest of the year. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL…
Core Inflation Difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) Leads EUR/USD This chart suggests that the core inflation difference (vs. U.S. core PCE) leads the EUR/USD by four months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Sovereign Ratings Map Interesting map of sovereign ratings across the world in July 2019, using Moody’s ratings. Source: Moody’s Sovereign Ratings, Aswath Damodaran
S&P 500 Average Performance -2Y/+2Y with U.S. Yield Curve Inversion History tells us that on average, the S&P 500 peaks 42 weeks after (10Y-3M) yield curve inversion. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Dividend Yield of S&P 500 Components Yields on equities seem competitive vs. U.S. Treasuries, but equity risk does not disappear because a company pays a dividend. Image: Bespoke Investment Group