How “NO-DEAL Brexit” Would Affect the World’s Economy? What could a no-deal Brexit mean for developing countries? Main losers if there is a no-deal Brexit: European Union and Turkey. Main winners if there is a…
Interest Rates for Personal Loans and Credit Cards Diverge Due to the growing spread, many borrowers take out personal loans to pay off credit card debt. Image: Axios
China Credit Impulse Leads World Trade The chart suggests that China credit impulse leads world trade by 12 months. World trade is expected to turn positive in coming months. Credit impulse is the change in…
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 The U.S. stock market is pricing in a strong rebound in the ISM Manufacturing Index (R² = 0.40 since 1997). Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP The long-term trend in U.S. nominal GDP growth is a good indicator of U.S. nominal bond yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Payout Ratio Stock buybacks and dividends as a percentage of free cash flow are reaching dangerous levels. Image: MarketWatch
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Chicago PMI Index The Chicago PMI Index fell to 44.4 in July suggesting a weakness in the ISM Manufacturing Index. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed When the Tape and Fed lean bullish, as today, the S&P 500 has historically risen at 17.96%/year since 1968 vs. 9.98%/year on a buy-and-hold basis. Image: Ned Davis Research
OCDE World Leading Indicator vs. Global GDP Growth The OCDE world leading indicator suggests a weakness in global GDP growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
S&P 500 Operating Earnings / NIPA Profits and S&P 500 Returns Interesting chart suggesting that S&P500 2-year returns will be negative, as they were in the late 1990s, when S&P 500 operating earnings rose relative…
When Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Outperform? The chart shows that Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) usually outperform regular Treasuries when the 10-year breakeven inflation rate is below 2%. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is a market-based measure…