S&P 500 Performance After 63 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average After closing above its 20-day moving average for 63 straight days, the S&P 500 has, in the past, continued to rise over the following…
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Russell 3000 The recent three-month period has been exceptionally strong for the most heavily shorted stocks outside the pandemic boom, driven significantly by retail investors and short…
Speculative Trading Indicator 3-Month Changes While the U.S. stock market may continue rallying in the near term due to strong earnings and positive trade developments, the heightened speculative activity raises the risk of a notable…
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to…
Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a…
Average S&P 500 Price Returns Following Sharp Increases in Speculative Trading Indicator Sharp increases in speculative trading activity serve as a leading indicator of a market cycle marked initially by above-average returns, followed later by…
U.S. Money Supply M2 The pickup in the U.S. M2 money supply matters because it signals increasing liquidity that—if excessive relative to economic output and accompanied by rising velocity—could reignite inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank
Reserves in Different Currencies While the USD share of global FX reserves has slipped somewhat, it remains close to 60% and continues to be the leading global reserve currency by a wide margin. Image: Deutsche…
S&P 500 vs. 60/40 Portfolio Since 2020, the S&P 500 has delivered higher returns than the 60/40 portfolio but with greater volatility, while the 60/40 portfolio has provided more stability at the cost of lower…
S&P 500 vs. Liquidity Index A slowdown in liquidity growth—particularly if combined with soft economic data—poses a short-term risk to the U.S. equity market, increasing volatility and the likelihood of price declines. Image: TS Lombard
Average Relative Performance of S&P 500 Additions Stocks added to the S&P 500 index typically experience their strongest outperformance before the official announcement, as market participants anticipate and position for the change. Image: Goldman Sachs…