Can History Help Us Predict the Future of the S&P 500? When the S&P 500 hits all-time high and AAII Investor Sentiment Survey bulls is below 35%, then 88% of the time the S&P 500…

Why Is the Dollar So Strong? There are several reasons for this: – Interest rates differential – Strong American economy and no immediate recession– American geopolitical dominance– Market shadow over Donald Trump’s re-election Image: The…

Ken Fisher: ‘Third year of a president’s term is positive’ “…because political risk aversion falls as you get to increase gridlock which happends in every midterm election.” Billionaire Ken Fisher thinks there is room to…

What Will Cause The Next Recession – Paul Krugman On UBI And More Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman speaks about the next recession, income inequality vs. growth, wages, universal basic income (UBI), redistribution and geographic…

The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High, After 6 Months Without A Record High. So, What Now? Can history help us to predict the future? Here’s a bullish case: the S&P 500 has been higher 17…

What Recession? The S&P 500 Hits All-Time High …but many of the world’s major indexes are still a long way from their all-time closing highs. Image: Bloomberg

Why Potential GDP Has Been Cut in Half Since the 1950’s? The main reason is a lower productivity than previous business cycles, due to: – lower population growth – the service sector is growing faster…

Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP? Because monetary and fiscal policies continue to support growth in the USA. So, real GDP could remain close to potential GDP. It also suggests…

What Are the Advantages of a Geographically Diversified Portfolio? A geographically diversified portfolio may minimize drawdowns and the amount earned from compounding may grow faster over time. Image: Bridgewater Associates, LP

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money…” – Warren Buffett Quote of the day: “Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” — Warren Buffett

Why the Current Business Cycle Can Continue? Even if we are in a late business cycle, real Fed funds rate is near zero, the Fed remains “patient” at the moment and has little influence on…