Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019

Expected Fed Funds Rate as of June 20, 2019 Fed funds futures for January 2021 imply an expected rate of only 1.26% (traders are pricing in more than four full cuts). You may also like…

Years Without a 20% Gain for the S&P 500 Index

Years Without a 20% Gain for the S&P 500 Index This great chart shows the number of years without a 20% gain since 1950. Could the S&P 500 gain 20% this year? Image: LPL Research

Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut

Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut After first Fed rate cut, the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s gains are +24% on average when no recession, and +11% with a recession within 12 months.…

Global Economy Is Late Cycle

Global Economy Is Late Cycle This chart shows that a record number of fund managers think the global economy is late cycle. Image: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index

ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index The Cass Freight Index (white bar chart) is a measure of monthly North American freight activity. It suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index (green line) could go lower if the…

U.S. Recessions since 1957

U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman

Debt and Demographics

Debt and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments