Gold Annual Returns Up 40% this year, gold is enjoying its strongest rally since 1979’s 133% surge. But so far, the rise has stirred far less hysteria than in earlier eras, leaving room for further…

S&P 500 Index Around First Cut Following Easing Cycle Pauses of Six Months or More Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after holding steady for at least six months, U.S. stocks often post strong…

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. A 0.5% decline in the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) in August 2025 indicates an ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity. Image: The Conference Board

Buying U.S. Equity Securities In 2Q 2025, foreign investors boosted their holdings of U.S. equities, while U.S. households and hedge funds cut back amid market volatility and policy uncertainty. Image: Deutsche Bank

S&P 500 Market Cap / S&P 500 Equal Weight Index The current performance gap—where the market-cap-weighted index outperforms the equal-weight index—does not necessarily signal an imminent bear market, but it does warrant some caution for…

U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is below the fed funds rate, signals that monetary policy is restrictive. It also implies the Fed is about 80 basis…

Annual S&P 500 Net Buyback Payout Ratio Over the past decade, the buyback payout ratio in the S&P 500 has remained high and relatively steady, with buybacks serving as a primary way of delivering value…

Breadth Thrusts and S&P 500 The ongoing Breadth Thrust Regime offers a powerful bullish signal, indicating favorable conditions for U.S. equities until at least May 2026, particularly with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. Image:…

Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image:…

Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum…

Fed Funds Rate Scenario Analysis In its baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates from 4.3% to 3.1% by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research