U.S. Core CPI and Headline Inflation Goldman Sachs projects U.S. core CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year by the end of 2025, factoring in tariffs, and expects it to gradually ease to 2.6% in 2026 despite…

Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Investing on Any Day vs. Investing at New High Despite widespread investor hesitation to buy at all-time highs, data suggest that doing so generally leads to better future…

Cross Asset Flows as a % of Assets Money market funds continue to attract strong investor interest, providing safe and profitable short-term opportunities in the current high-interest-rate environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

S&P 500 Alternating Higher and Lower Days in a Row Over seven days in August, the S&P 500’s alternating higher and lower closes signal a choppy trading environment, consistent with usual seasonal patterns amid ongoing…

S&P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS Citigroup strategists raised their year-end S&P 500 target to 6,600 points, up from 6,300, expecting that tax cuts introduced in July 2025 will counterbalance the negative impact of…

S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain strongly net long on S&P 500 futures, signaling a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P.…

Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent…

Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report Strong earnings surprises boosted U.S. stocks in 2Q, but with already high expectations entering the quarter, the price reaction was somewhat limited compared to…