S&P 500 Net Long Futures Contracts Despite some profit-taking, asset managers and leveraged funds remain strongly net long on S&P 500 futures, signaling a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Recession Probability Both the S&P 500 equity market and the corporate bond market reflect investor expectations that a U.S. recession is unlikely or at least of low probability in the coming months. Image: J.P.…

Copper to Gold Ratio vs. U.S. ISM Manufacturing A falling copper/gold ratio points to slower U.S. economic growth, reflecting investor caution toward the near-term economic environment. Image: Bloomberg

U.S. Household Ownership of Stocks, % of Total Assets An elevated equity exposure among U.S. households does not necessarily signal an imminent market downturn, but it underscores the importance of cautious investment strategies and prudent…

Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds have near-record equity exposure by historical standards, sitting at the 97th percentile, which reflects strong confidence in the equity market risk environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Median Excess Return vs. S&P 500 on Day After Earnings Report Strong earnings surprises boosted U.S. stocks in 2Q, but with already high expectations entering the quarter, the price reaction was somewhat limited compared to…

S&P 500 Quarterly Margin Growth in the high-margin tech sector, economies of scale, network effects, and supportive financial and regulatory environments—key structural shifts—have pushed the S&P 500’s profit margins to nearly a four-year high. Image:…

Market Implied Probability of a Fed Cut The odds of a September Fed rate cut have soared—current market pricing now suggests a very high probability after deeply disappointing U.S. labor market data. Image: TS Lombard

Most Shorted Stocks Relative to Russell 3000 Heavily shorted stocks generally underperform the broader market over the long term, but in 2025, they significantly outperformed, driven primarily by aggressive short covering. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…

Recession – U.S. Real Retail Sales U.S. real retail sales and consumer confidence trends indicate cautious and subdued consumer spending growth, which has historically been linked to an increased risk of recession. Image: Real Investment…

S&P 500 – Hedge Funds vs. Retail Investors The contrast between hedge funds taking short positions and retail investors being long is often seen as a warning of potential equity market weakness over the next…