S&P 500 Performance in August the Second Term of Post-Election Years August is often a weak month for the U.S. stock market during post-election years of second-term presidents, when their typically more difficult and less…
S&P 500 Year-End Target Oppenheimer projects strong gains for the S&P 500 supported by macroeconomic fundamentals, progress in trade deals, and structural technological shifts, with a year-end 2025 target of 7,100 points implying continued robust…
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag…
Net Call Volume for the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Rest The recent rally in the most shorted stocks has been fueled by a surge in net call volumes, driven largely by retail investor enthusiasm…
S&P 500 Performance After 63 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average After closing above its 20-day moving average for 63 straight days, the S&P 500 has, in the past, continued to rise over the following…
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Russell 3000 The recent three-month period has been exceptionally strong for the most heavily shorted stocks outside the pandemic boom, driven significantly by retail investors and short…
U.S. Credit Card Debt Rising credit card debt shows weakened repayment discipline and financial strain from inflation in basic living costs, creating a feedback loop where increased debt and fees further hinder consumers’ ability to…
Each Component of the Speculative Trading Indicator Screens as Elevated vs. History All three core components of Goldman Sachs’s speculative trading indicator—unprofitable, penny, and high EV/sales stocks—are trading near the extreme upper deciles, reflecting a…
Average S&P 500 Price Returns Following Sharp Increases in Speculative Trading Indicator Sharp increases in speculative trading activity serve as a leading indicator of a market cycle marked initially by above-average returns, followed later by…
U.S. Money Supply M2 The pickup in the U.S. M2 money supply matters because it signals increasing liquidity that—if excessive relative to economic output and accompanied by rising velocity—could reignite inflationary pressures. Image: Deutsche Bank
Reserves in Different Currencies While the USD share of global FX reserves has slipped somewhat, it remains close to 60% and continues to be the leading global reserve currency by a wide margin. Image: Deutsche…