S&P 500 Earnings Revisions Breadth and S&P 500 YoY Performance The divergence between earnings revisions and S&P 500 performance suggests that investors are looking beyond current analyst estimates, potentially betting on stronger-than-expected corporate performance. Image:…
Active vs. Passive Fund Flows The trend of investors shifting from active to passive funds has accelerated significantly over the past decade, driven by cost considerations, performance outcomes, and evolving market practices. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability.…
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day While Donald Trump has won the election, the real “winner” appears to be the U.S. deficit, which is set to grow substantially in the coming years. Have a Great Week,…
S&P 500 Performance by President While the S&P 500 has generally trended upward under both Democratic and Republican administrations, average gains have historically been higher during Democratic presidencies. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements.…
CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy The current landscape suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook among CEOs, which could lead to increased economic activity and investment as businesses prepare for potential growth. Image: Goldman Sachs…
VIX Indexed to Election Day Equity implied volatility typically increases leading up to U.S. presidential elections and decreases afterward, mirroring the market’s reaction to political uncertainty and its resolution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage Change in S&P 500 in Previous Bull Markets The current bull market appears to be in its early stages, with historical data supporting the potential for significant gains in the coming months and years.…
Estimated Earnings Impact of 1pp Change in Statutory Tax Rate A one percentage point change in the corporate tax rate can have a measurable impact on U.S. corporate earnings, with small companies often feeling the…
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return Historically, a split Congress has frequently led to favorable U.S. stock market performance, as investors often view the reduced policy risk and increased…