Category: Blog

U.S. Corporate Profits and S&P 500 Corporate profits have mostly been flat over the past five years. Is a new bubble being formed? Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond

City Economic Surprise Index – U.S. Economy vs. Global Economy Nice chart showing that the U.S. relative economic outperformance. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC

U.S. ISM Composite Index and U.S. Real GDP This chart shows the good correlation between the ISM Composite Index (services + manufacturing) and U.S. real GDP. What about U.S. GDP growth in 2020? Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

China and Taiwan Manufacturing PMI The charts suggest a bottom in the Chinese and Taiwanese cycle in early 2020. Historically, this has been positive for global equities. Image: Danske Bank Research

FAANG Stocks vs. S&P 500 Investors opt for safer stocks rather than FAANG stocks. Image: Financial Times

Number of Days Between Cycle Turn and NBER Announcement The current U.S. business cycle is the longest on record. But what about the number of days between the cycle turn and the NBER announcement? Image: Lohman Econometrics

Bank Reserves and the U.S. Dollar This interesting chart shows the correlation between excess reserves held by banks at the Fed and the U.S. dollar. Image: Financial Times

NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe

How Much Do the FAANMGs Matter to the S&P 500 since 1/26/18? FAANMG stocks pushed S&P 500 up 2.24%, and other stocks (S&P 500 less FAANMG) pushed S&P 500 down 2.55%. Image: Bianco Research

China GDP and China Credit Impulse The chart shows the correlation between credit impulse and China GDP. Credit impulse is the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. The chart also suggests that the latest stimulus has been more effective than previous ones. Image: TS Lombard

S&P 500 vs. 12-Month Forward EPS Estimate Chart suggesting that the 52-week rate-of-change in forward EPS could turn negative. Image: Lohman Econometrics