Category: Blog

U.S. Recessions since 1800 This interesting chart shows that U.S. recessions are becoming rarer over time. The last U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. Image: Fidelity Investments

Global Equity – Bond Flows According to Bernstein, the S&P 500 not far from its all-time high, could set a new record. Image: Berstein Research

U.S. Debt Markets An interesting chart showing the breakdown of U.S. debt markets. Image: Bianco Research

Who Owns the Equity Market? Most of the equity market is owned by households and mutual funds. But ETFs and foreigners continue to gain share. Image: Bianco Research

U.S. 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate vs. Russell 2000 Index Could this interesting correlation persist over time? Image: Hayek and Keynes

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

China – Equity Returns and Money Supply This chart shows the relationship between M2 money supply and China’s stock market since 2003. Image: Jeroen Blokland

Seasonality Effect in the Bond Market This interesting chart shows the seasonality of 30-year Treasury bond. Image: Commodity Seasonality

Commodities to S&P 500 Ratio This great chart shows that the ratio is currently at a 50 year low and far below the long-term average. Image: Crescat Capital LLC

Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign of peaking. So, it suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “U.S. Heavy…

Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)