Times When Precious Metals Stocks Surged While Oil Plunged This chart shows that precious metals stocks surged while oil plunged, only three other times in recent history. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
Lower Returns for Stocks in the Next 12 Months? Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator is flagging “downturn.” The yield curve’s slope, debt issuance, consumer confidence, economic and financial markets data are aggregated in Morgan Stanley’s cyclical indicator. The entry into the “downturn” phase suggests lower returns for stocks and risky assets in the next 12 months. Image:…
S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield since 2009 This chart shows the gap between S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10-year Treasury yield since 2009. Keep in mind that investing is not just a competition between stocks and bonds. But for the first time since 2017, the dividend yield on US stocks is equal…
Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down? The chart below shows that the U.S. economy is slowing down. The U.S.-China trade war and slower global growth are not helping. But as long as there is no recession, slowing down is fine.
What Does Trump’s Economic Plan Look Like? A basic formula explains Trump’s economic policies to “Make America Great Again.” Image: Hayek and Keynes
Estimated Number of Hedge Funds Launched or Closed since 2008 Can hedge funds deliver higher returns than passive investing? Not really. But many investors still think they can achieve higher returns with active trading than with passive investing. The chart below shows that it is really hard to outperform the market. As Warren Buffett said,…
Mutual Fund Flows – Asset Allocation Funds since 2000 Dynamic/flexible and balanced funds saw significant outflows since 2018. It is obvious that many investors don’t have a long-term view. Image: Topdown Charts
Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…
Can The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Fall Further? Well, according to this chart, the U.S. 10-year treasury yield could fall further. The chart suggests that G4 central bank assets as percentage of GDP (1-year change) lead U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (1-year change) by one year. Image: Macrobond
The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion The U.S. corporate bond debt rated ‘BBB’ exceeds $3 trillion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. Any drop in the credit ratings could amplify the next recession: many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds.…
Total Global Carbon Emissions (CO2) China, the United States, and India account for almost half the world’s carbon emissions. You may also like “Annual Carbon Emissions in Tons.” Image: Visual Capitalist