Greek’s 5-Year Bond Yields Have Fallen Below US 5-Year Government Bond Yield Which one would you choose? Greek bonds or US counterparts? This is a great example of financial market madness. Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” That’s true! Greece has spent around half its time in default on its…
How’s the U.S. Economy Doing Now? The real GDP Nowcast relies on soft data such as consumer and business surveys and hard data such as retail sales and industrial production. It forecasts the growth of real GDP. At full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP. If a recession were to occur today,…
Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP
What our Short-Term Forecast of the US Stock Market Has Been for the Past 12 Months? Here is what our short-term forecast of the US stock market has been for the past 12 months. This great prediction model is updated daily. It has a 97% correlation with the US stock market on a quarterly basis since 1970…
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator for Global Trade Tensions The recent decline of the indicator suggests that investors may be more complacent about the risk and impact of trade conflicts. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute – Global Investment Outlook Q2 2019
“The Individual Investor Should Act Consistently as an Investor…” – Ben Graham Quote of the day: “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” –Ben Graham
Is Inflation Dead? Is this cover of Bloomberg Businessweek a contrarian indicator? Remember that dinosaurs evolved into birds over 50 million years. Do you think we will have to wait 50 million years for inflation to return? You may also like “How to Get Inflation?” and “Where Does Inflation Come From?“ Image: Bloomberg
The Value vs. Growth Differential Has Never Been So Extreme The Value vs. Growth differential has never been so extreme, even during the Great Depression and the Dotcom bubble. Chasing growth usually ends badly! Image: Woodford Investment Management Ltd
Over The Last 6 Months, The S&P 500 Lags Bonds, Gold And Global Stocks Last year, the sell-off of stocks was a correction from a bad equity risk premium and an overvalued stock market, as suggested by our forecasting models. Image: Bloomberg
The Average American Investor Still Underperforms the Market Over the Long Term This is usually due to emotional biases, herding effect, lack of diversification, panic selling,… Most investors buy high and sell low at the wrong time. That’s the reason why using our formidable decision support tools will empower yourself to make much better investment…
Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%… Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14% before the market crash, through our advanced stock market valuation model. Near the same level today and within 1% of a record high, the US stock market remains slightly overvalued by 7.8%.…