Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading.
Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession.
“A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.”