Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve
Keep in mind that the Fed has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. And currently, the 30-year Treasury rate minus 10-year Treasury rate spread has a normal upward slope, like in the mid-1990s when the economy was growing.
The chart below shows that the steepening 30Y-10Y spread is causing US cyclical stocks to gain traction.
The 30Y-10Y spread is very useful and has been a reliable predictor of recessions. It suggests that a recession is not imminent.
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Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, Bloomberg