Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth The slowdown in the labor force in the U.S., China, Europe and Japan, represents 62% of the world’s GDP and 69% of the equity market capitalization. The labor force growth is expected to be -1% by 2055. Image: Fidelity Investments
Correlation of VIX with U.S. 10-Year TIPS Yields The correlation of the VIX with U.S. 10-year TIPS yields has turned negative, as it was during the dot-com bubble burst, the Great Financial Crisis, the European debt crisis,… Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fears of Global Recession The latest BofAML’s European credit investor survey shows that fears of global recession have risen to 42%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe
U.S. Share of Global Investment-Grade Fixed-Income Yield With negative yields in Europe and Japan, the U.S. now accounts for 95% of the positive investment-grade yield. Image: Legg Mason
Dividend Yield vs. Corporate Bond Yield This chart shows that dividend yields of European companies appear more attractive than corporate bond yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. EUR/USD Weaker European growth relative to the U.S. could weaken Euro/U.S. Dollar. Image: Credit Suisse
How “NO-DEAL Brexit” Would Affect the World’s Economy? What could a no-deal Brexit mean for developing countries? Main losers if there is a no-deal Brexit: European Union and Turkey. Main winners if there is a no-deal Brexit: China, USA, Japan, Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil. Image: howmuch.net, UNCTAD
Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run Over the long run, equities move with earnings. Currently, there is a big gap between U.S. and Europe earnings. As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” You may also like “Global Earnings since 2006.” Image: Cullen Roche
Global Earnings since 2006 This chart shows global earnings since 2006 (USA, Emerging Markets, Japan and Europe). As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” This chart below illustrates it well since 2006. You may also like “Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run.” Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Cash Return Yield by Sector and Region Currently, the S&P 500 cash return yield (buybacks + dividends) is 5.2%, the highest since 2011. That’s much more than Europe, Japan and emerging markets. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC