Probability of U.S. Recession – Real Economic Variables vs. Financial Variables Real economic variables do not suggest that a recession is imminent, while financial variables point to a higher risk of recession. Image: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Operating Earnings and NIPA Corporate Profits Goldman Sachs expects S&P 500 margins to rise slightly in 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Dow New All-Time Highs Per President Interesting chart showing that Dow new all-time highs have varied significantly under each president. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC Click the Image to Enlarge
The Cost of a Comfortable Living in the United States This map shows how long Americans need to work to enjoy a comfortable life. Image: howmuch.net Click the Image to Enlarge
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust
S&P 500 Industrials Index and U.S. Manufacturing Unit Labor Costs When U.S. labor costs rise, industrial profit margins are under pressure. Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
S&P 500 New All-Time Highs Per Year This year has the second most new highs ever. New all-time highs can last more than 10 years and tend to occur in clusters. Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC Click the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Forward 10 Year Returns Charts suggesting that S&P 500 returns will be weak for the next 10 years. Image: Pervalle Global Click the Image to Enlarge
Global Nominal GDP and Corporate Profits This chart shows the correlation and the slowdown in global growth and corporate profits. Historically, margin pressures have preceded the start of recessions. Image: J.P. Morgan
Impact of an Inverted Yield Curve: S&P 500 and U.S. Dollar History tells us that the U.S. dollar and the S&P 500 could go higher, and the yield curve could stay inverted until mid-2020. Image: Nordea and Macrobond Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims and U.S. GDP There is a pretty good correlation between U.S. initial unemployment claims and U.S. GDP. Initial unemployment claims could suggest an acceleration of U.S. GDP in Q3 2019. Click on the Image to Enlarge