S&P 500 Current P/E Valuation Based on 2021 EPS Scenarios Goldman Sachs baseline forecast for S&P 500 earnings in 2021 is $170, and the downside forecast is $115. Today, the S&P 500 trades at 19.5x the buy-side estimate of EPS. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index vs. Reported EPS This chart shows the very high correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1871 (R² = 0.97) Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Index vs. Earnings per Share (EPS) Currently, the S&P 500 Index prices in a 15% decline in EPS. A decline of 33% from 2019 seems more appropriate, according to Goldman Sachs. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Wicksell Spread and S&P 500 12-Month EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the Wicksell spread tends to lead the S&P 500 12-Month EPS growth by 3 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Trailing 12 Month EPS Growth: S&P 500 vs. MSCI AC World ex U.S. Chart suggesting that the “fundamental” advantage of U.S. stocks is diminishing. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Operating EPS vs. Normalized EPS The gap between operating and normalized EPS is the widest since Q3 2007 (the prior market peak). Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Percentage of S&P 500 Companies Guiding EPS Higher/Lower This quarter, the percentage of S&P 500 companies revising EPS guidance lower, is much higher than in previous quarters. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Tax Adjusted EPS vs. Trend Interesting chart showing that S&P 500 tax adjusted earnings are well above the trend in the United States, and have historically preceded earning plunges. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
10Y-3M Yield Curve Inversion and S&P 500 Operating EPS The inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys is not good news for S&P 500 operating EPS (90D means 3-month T-bill). The 50 day moving average removes false signals since 1967. Image: Stifel
S&P 500 Operating EPS vs. USA National Income, Corporate Profits Thanks to buybacks, this chart clearly shows the current divergence. Is a new bubble being formed? Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 Forward EPS and World Trade Growth The chart shows a pretty good correlation between the S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS and the CPB World Trade Index. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond