Interest Rates – Cumulative Rate Cuts vs. Hikes

Interest Rates – Cumulative Rate Cuts vs. Hikes In 2024, global central banks are expected to implement significant policy rate cuts, marking it as the third largest year for such reductions in history, driven by falling inflation and the need to support economic growth. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Fed – The Distribution of FOMC Voters

Fed – The Distribution of FOMC Voters Should investors bet for a hawkish Fed policy tone in 2025, as the central bank remains focused on its fight against persistent inflation, even if it means risking some economic pain? Image: BofA Global Research

Global Policy Rate Hikes

Global Policy Rate Hikes In June 2024, for the first time since October 2020, no major central banks around the world raised interest rates, marking a significant shift in global monetary policies. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Financial Conditions

Financial Conditions Financial conditions in G3 economies have been experiencing a trend of loosening, posing challenges for central banks in their efforts to manage inflation and making it more difficult to keep it under control. Image: BofA Global Research

Cumulative Gold Flows

YTD Cumulative Gold Flows Despite the upward trajectory of gold prices, the trend of outflows from gold ETFs has persisted. However, bullion and coin purchases have surpassed gold ETF sales and central bank gold purchases since Q3 2020. Image: J.P. Morgan

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI

Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Fed – Number of Policy Rate Adjustments

Fed – Number of Policy Rate Adjustments Throughout history, the Federal Reserve has made decisions that are not influenced by the election cycle, as the central bank’s actions are predominantly guided by economic indicators and its dual mandate. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates

U.S. Core CPI vs. Unemployment Rate When Fed First Cut Rates It is rare for the Fed to cut rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, signaling the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures and its emphasis on maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate

U.S. Core CPI Minus Unemployement Rate % vs. Fed Funds Rate The Fed rarely cuts rates when core CPI exceeds the unemployment rate, reflecting the central bank’s concern about potential inflationary pressures in the economy and its emphasis on price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield

Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, continues to rise. Image: The Daily Shot

Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield

Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, hit a 14-year high. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy