“U.S. Stock Market, No Froth In Sight” Says Stock Market Sentiment Index Keep in mind that it is just another investor sentiment tool. But it does not show at all if the US stock market is overvalued or undervalued. See our stock market valuation model (99% correlation and R² = 0.97 since 1970).
S&P 500 Performance After Green in Both May and June Since 1988, when the S&P 500 gains in both May and June—a rare bullish sign—the rest of the year rose 15 of 16 times, averaging 8.8% gains, indicating strong momentum and positive investor sentiment for the year’s second half. Image: Carson Investment Research
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration The expiration of $5.9tn in options notional may lead to increased market volatility and price movements, driven by heightened trading activity, shifts in trader sentiment, and the mechanics in option exercise and settlement. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Households’ Allocation to Equity, Bond and Cash Americans’ love for stocks has driven household equity allocations to historic highs, increasing wealth but also sparking concerns about market stability and the risks of shifting investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Monthly U.S. Equity Mutual Fund and ETF Flows Recently, U.S. equity fund flows have been weak, with sustained outflows driven by trade policy uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Inflation Expectations U.S. inflation expectations have declined over the past month, making consumers more optimistic than in April. However, sentiment is still weaker than six months ago, with uncertainty persisting due to ongoing tariff policies. Image: Yahoo Finance
S&P 500 Index The current rally is underpinned by solid employment data and improving trade sentiment. If the S&P 500 can sustain levels above 6,000, the only major resistance ahead is the all-time high near 6,150. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index The market’s ongoing volatility is a direct response to the unpredictable cycle of tariff announcements, pauses, and retaliations, with sentiment swinging between hope for de-escalation and fear of economic damage. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in global investor sentiment and the structural underpinnings of U.S. financial markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Historically, when May sees strong gains—over 5%—it often paves the way for continued positive sentiment and solid returns in June, especially when economic and monetary conditions are favorable. Image: Topdown Charts
Outstanding Short Interest Elevated short interest in both ETFs and single stocks generally signals increased bearish sentiment or heightened hedging activity in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research