Performance – S&P 500 Banks vs. 10Y-3M U.S. Treasury Yield Curve U.S. banks have lagged the broad market over the last 12 months, despite the yield curve steepening. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Price Return and S&P 500 as Reported EPS Equity markets tend to follow the EPS trend. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Volatility – S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Total Return Could the U.S. stock market continue to swing wildly? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Average S&P 500 Performance Around U.S. Presidential Elections Since 1972 Market volatility is expected to continue ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Asset Return Expections on a Five-Year Horizon Government bond returns are expected to be negative across developed markets on a five-year horizon. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute
S&P 500 Returns – Obama vs. Trump Two charts comparing Obama’s vs. Trump’s stock market returns. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Price Return Indexes – MSCI World ex-US and US Valueline Composite Index Where is the bull market exactly? Today, the Valueline composite index, considered as a proxy for the U.S. market’s performance, stands at the same level as in 1998. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Total Returns – Gold, Nasdaq and MSCI World ex-US With the Nasdaq at all-time high, markets expect a weak global growth, low inflation and a strong U.S. dollar. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
M2 Money Supply and S&P 500 vs. Japan M2 and Topix M2 is rising significantly in the U.S., as during the Japanese bubble market of the 1980s. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Housing – Property Sales Volume and Construction Starts This chart shows the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the property market. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Credit Spreads on High-Quality U.S. Corporates Credit spreads on high-quality U.S. corporates are widening and are flashing a warning sign for markets. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond