U.S. Corporate Profits vs. Assets U.S. corporate profits are near 20-year lows relative to fixed assets. The alternative to a recovery in corporate profits is the increasing risk of recession. Image: BofA Global Research
Number of Countries in Each Cycle Stage Chart suggesting that the global synchronised slowdown is over. According to the OECD leading indicators, the number of countries in recovery is rising. Image: TS Lombard
China Manufacturing PMI and Global Manufacturing PMI Chart suggesting that the global economy should avoid recession and a moderate global recovery is expected in 2020. Image: Danske Research
Asian Exports There is a glimmer of hope of a recovery in Asian exports. The free fall in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea exports in early 2019 has stopped. Image: Danske Bank
World Real Exports and Composite Trade Indicator Chart suggesting a recovery in world exports growth Image: Pictet Asset Management
U.S. Dollar and Growth in the Rest of the World vs. U.S. GDP Growth Chart suggesting that the U.S. dollar could weaken in a scenario of a global economy recovery. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings Estimate Progression The consensus growth estimate for Q3 earnings stands at -3.2%, but the earnings recovery seems better than 2016. The Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Excess Liquidity Growth Leads S&P 500 Returns This chart suggests that M2 money supply to nominal GDP ratio leads S&P 500 returns by one year. Is the S&P 500 vulnerable to a drop, followed by a recovery? Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond