Business and Industrial Sentiment vs. U.S. GDP Chart suggesting that business and industrial surveys have not explained U.S. economic growth over the past decade (R² = 0). Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
What is the Probability that the U.S. Enters an Economic Recession over the Next 12 Months? The latest edition of BofA’s US credit investor survey shows that recession fears have dropped to 16.3%. Image: BofA US Credit Investor Survey
Global Manufacturing PMI and Profit Expectations Rising profit expectations suggest a rebound in the global manufacturing PMI. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Most CFOs Expect A Recession Next Year CFO Survey: most CFOs predict a recession in 2020. Image: Charles Schwab, Duke CFO Magazine
FMS Global Yield Curve Expectations vs. U.S. Large/Small Cap Price Relative History suggests that U.S. small cap stocks outperform large cap stocks, when the yield curve steepens. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey
Share of Americans Who Own Stocks More and more Americans are invested in the stock market. 30 years ago, only about 30%. More than 50%, today. Image: Atlas, Survey of Consumer Finances
Fears of Global Recession The latest BofAML’s European credit investor survey shows that fears of global recession have risen to 42%. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Manufacturing Production This chart shows the ISM survey (sentiment) versus the real world (hard data) and suggests it is not yet catastrophic. Image: Swedbank Research
Probability of A Recession Over the Next 12 Months The Bloomberg survey of professional forecasters shows a 35% probability of a recession over the next 12 months Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Predictors The chart shows that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a better predictor of the ISM Manufacturing Index over the past two years. Image: Nordea and Macrobond