Emerging Markets Exports Value and MSCI Emerging Markets 12m Trailing EPS Chart suggesting that EM corporate profits are linked to the global trade cycle. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Operating EPS vs. Normalized EPS The gap between operating and normalized EPS is the widest since Q3 2007 (the prior market peak). Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Annualized EPS Growth Across Major Global Equity Markets Goldman Sachs expects that EPS will modestly accelerate to 6% in the U.S. next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Profits vs. S&P 500 EPS The current divergence between large-cap profits and the rest of the economy is the widest on record. It is possible to close the gap “down” (recession) or “up” (reflation). Image: BofA Global Research
STOXX Europe 600 EPS Revisions This year, SXXP EPS revisions have not been worse than a typical year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI U.S. EPS vs. Trend History shows that earnings well above the trend in the U.S. precede earning plunges. Image: Barclays Research
S&P 500 EPS Forecast Despite the earnings squeeze, Goldman Sachs is still positive on the S&P 500 earnings outlook. In 2020, U.S. and global growth should rebound modestly. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Semiconductor Sales vs. MSCI World EPS Growth Chart suggesting that global semiconductor sales may have bottomed. That’s good news for global EPS growth. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Percentage of S&P 500 Companies Guiding EPS Higher/Lower This quarter, the percentage of S&P 500 companies revising EPS guidance lower, is much higher than in previous quarters. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and Cyclicals EPS Revision This chart shows the correlation between the ISM Manufacturing Index and cyclicals EPS revision, suggesting that 4Q19 will see a reset, with capital goods pricing in an actual earnings recession. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
EPS Growth Over Time This chart shows that negative EPS growth doesn’t always mean a recession is coming. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research