Inflation – S&P 500 LTM Sales Growth vs. Core CPI Since 1970

Inflation – S&P 500 LTM Sales Growth vs. Core CPI Since 1970 Rising inflation tends to boost S&P 500 earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, a 100bp increase in average annual core CPI would lift the S&P 500 EPS to $170 in 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

World Tech + E-commerce vs. World ex-Tech & E-commerce

World Tech + E-commerce vs. World ex-Tech & E-commerce The secular trend in the market has been deflation (credit & tech) dominating inflation, as $100 of EPS in 1995 is now $1,500 in the technology sector, but only $425 in everything else. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Valuation – MSCI World P/E

Valuation – MSCI World P/E Global equity valuations appear expensive, even based on EPS including the recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election

Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Buybacks in 2020

Buybacks in 2020 Bye-bye buybacks? Buybacks are expected to fall by 50% this year compared with 2019 levels, suggesting slower EPS growth and less support for stock prices. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Buybacks in 2020

U.S. Buybacks in 2020 Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 compared with 2019 levels, suggesting slower EPS growth and less support for stock prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks

Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks Goldman Sachs expects a sharp decline in buybacks in 2020 and 2021, suggesting less support for stock prices and slower EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

The SARS Analog – Virus Outbreaks and Global Markets

The SARS Analog – Virus Outbreaks and Global Markets The chart shows the SARS analog (2002 vs. 2020), highlighting the S&P 500 Index, the MSCI China Index, emerging markets vs. U.S. EPS and the CRB Raw Industrials Index. Image: Fidelity Investments

A Weaker U.S. Dollar in 2020?

A Weaker U.S. Dollar in 2020? This chart suggests that the U.S. dollar could decline this year, as long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the banking system. Image: Fidelity Investments