Inflation – S&P 500 LTM Sales Growth vs. Core CPI Since 1970 Rising inflation tends to boost S&P 500 earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, a 100bp increase in average annual core CPI would lift the S&P 500 EPS to $170 in 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
World Tech + E-commerce vs. World ex-Tech & E-commerce The secular trend in the market has been deflation (credit & tech) dominating inflation, as $100 of EPS in 1995 is now $1,500 in the technology sector, but only $425 in everything else. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – MSCI World P/E Global equity valuations appear expensive, even based on EPS including the recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Prediction Market Probability That Democrats Have Control Following 2020 Election According to Goldman Sachs, the odds of a “blue wave” in November have risen and could lift the effective S&P 500 tax rate from 18% back to 26%, reducing the 2021 EPS forecast from $170 to $150. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Buybacks in 2020 Bye-bye buybacks? Buybacks are expected to fall by 50% this year compared with 2019 levels, suggesting slower EPS growth and less support for stock prices. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Buybacks in 2020 Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to fall by 50% during 2020 compared with 2019 levels, suggesting slower EPS growth and less support for stock prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Implied Trailing 12-Month Buybacks Goldman Sachs expects a sharp decline in buybacks in 2020 and 2021, suggesting less support for stock prices and slower EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market – 9/11 as Analog to Coronavirus This chart compares 9/11 to coronavirus. It shows the P/E ratio as a percentile, and EPS. Image: Fidelity Investments
The SARS Analog – Virus Outbreaks and Global Markets The chart shows the SARS analog (2002 vs. 2020), highlighting the S&P 500 Index, the MSCI China Index, emerging markets vs. U.S. EPS and the CRB Raw Industrials Index. Image: Fidelity Investments
A Weaker U.S. Dollar in 2020? This chart suggests that the U.S. dollar could decline this year, as long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the banking system. Image: Fidelity Investments