S&P 500 Performance (May – October) Broken Down by Presidential Cycle Sell in May and go away? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has shown an average return of 2.3% during the period from May through October in election years, making it an attractive period for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fed – Number of Policy Rate Adjustments Throughout history, the Federal Reserve has made decisions that are not influenced by the election cycle, as the central bank’s actions are predominantly guided by economic indicators and its dual mandate. Image: BofA Global Research
Distribution of S&P 500 12-Month Total Returns Goldman Sachs, in its base case scenario, expects the S&P 500 index to generate a total return of 6% in 2024, which is slightly below the average return typically observed during presidential election years.
S&P 500 Performance in June In the past, when the S&P 500 has increased by more than 8% year-to-date heading into June in a pre-election year, positive outcomes have typically occurred in June. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance November – April During Midterm Years Historically, the six months from November through April have seen the best performance for U.S. stocks following midterm elections. Image: Carson Investment Research
Percentage of Time the U.S. Is in Recession Will the U.S. stock market rise in the 12 months following midterm elections, despite fears of a recession? Image: Deutsche Bank
The Presidential Cycle and Average Total Return of the S&P 500 Should investors expect the S&P 500 to rise after midterm elections, despite macro headwinds? Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index Monthly Performance in October In October, U.S. stocks tend to perform better in odd years than in even years, as odd years avoid elections and midterms. Image: LPL Research
Performance – S&P 500 vs. Basket of 30 Equities Expected to Benefit from a Biden Win Biden longs outperformed in the equity market, as investors are betting on a potential Biden election victory. Image: BofA Global Research
Impact of U.S. Corporate Tax Hike on S&P 500 This table suggests the impact on the S&P 500 if Joe Biden won the election and the Democrats swept both houses of Congress. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Investors and Average Cash Balance Cash is up 4.9% from 4.7%, as investors remain cautious on coronavirus, election and macro. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey