Prescient Economist & Fed Expert Paul McCulley on No Recession Ahead & Fed’s Tightening Done Paul Allen McCulley is an American economist, strategist and former managing director at PIMCO. He speaks with Consuelo Mack on WealthTrack about the Fed, credit bubbles, and why he does not expect a recession soon.
Fed Balance Sheet Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction in June 2025 and end quantitative tightening by September, which could influence market liquidity and interest rates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Fed Funds Rate and CPI Will the Fed pause its rate hikes? Historically, Fed’s tightening cycles have ended when the federal funds rate is above CPI. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Fed Funds Rate and Financial Events History repeats itself over and over again, as Fed tightening cycles end with a financial event. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Fed Funds and Recessions Fed tightening over the past year is on an unprecedented scale. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Trajectory of the S&P 500 Across Tightening Cycles Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious as long as the Fed continues to raise interest rates? Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate YoY Less Real GDP Trailings 24-Months YoY Historically, the Fed’s tightening cycle tends to peak when the fed funds rate reaches the two-year trailing real GDP growth rate. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Inflation vs. Fed Funds and S&P 500 Historically, the combination of high inflation with Fed tightening monetary policy does not bode well for the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index vs. Fed Operations Will the S&P 500 deliver strong gains in the Fed’s tightening cycle? Image: Real Investment Advice
Interest Rates – Fed Funds Rate Should investors prepare for more tightening than expected? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research