Housing Market – U.S. Pending Home Sales Recession is coming in the United States. U.S. pending home sales, down 30% from a year ago, are a good leading indicator of the housing market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Housing – % of New U.S. Home Sales by Price Range The share of new home sales over $500,000 is increasing. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 – 2021E Sales and Profits Relative to 2019 Levels Will earnings growth drive the S&P 500 higher by the end of 2021? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Consumer Confidence – U.S. Auto Sales U.S. auto sales have fallen by 14% year-over-year in August, amid weaker consumer confidence and spending in the United States. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Auto and Housing Sales Signs of a strong recovery in U.S. auto and housing sales are evident. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Housing – Existing Home Sales Price U.S. house prices rise much faster than wages and become too expensive for most young people. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Foreign Sales % by Year The S&P 500 is more global than 2-3 decades ago, as 30% of S&P 500 sales come from overseas. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Return and Valuation – Stocks with EV/Sales Ratios Above 20x as Share of U.S. Equity Trading Volumes and Market Capitalization The median stock with an EV/sales ratio above 20x has generated a subsequent 12-month return of -1% since 1985. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2020 Retail Sales in the U.S. and Euro Area This chart shows a sweet V-shaped recovery in U.S. and EU retail sales. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation – S&P 500 LTM Sales Growth vs. Core CPI Since 1970 Rising inflation tends to boost S&P 500 earnings. According to Goldman Sachs, a 100bp increase in average annual core CPI would lift the S&P 500 EPS to $170 in 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
China Sales Exposure – Euro Stoxx 50 vs. S&P 500 Europe equities are more sensitive than the U.S. market, as the exposure of the Euro Stoxx 50 index to China is about twice that of the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research