Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums

Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Price of Oil Forecast

Price of Oil Forecast In contrast to futures market’s expectations, Goldman Sachs forecasts a positive outlook for oil prices over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Emerging Market Currencies Crash

Emerging Market Currencies Crash Emerging market currencies have been pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic and the oil crisis. Image: Financial Times

Major Oil Supply Disruptions

Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research

Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index

Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has improved significantly since the April market turmoil, driven by trade-related optimism, but it has yet to reach the extreme bullishness that typically signals market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended

S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage Hedge fund gross leverage remains extremely elevated, while net leverage fell sharply during recent market turmoil but has since rebounded significantly, though it is not yet back to highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

G10 FX Carry Trade Index

G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy