Equity, Bond, FX and Oil Volatility Premiums Volatility premiums have significantly declined across asset classes after the U.S. elections. As election results become known, market uncertainty diminishes, leading to lower volatility premiums and increased stability. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Price of Oil Forecast In contrast to futures market’s expectations, Goldman Sachs forecasts a positive outlook for oil prices over the next 3 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact on U.S. Consumer Spending If Oil Prices Rise to $120 If oil prices remain elevated, will the Fed raise interest rates more gradually than markets expect? Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Emerging Market Currencies Crash Emerging market currencies have been pummeled by the coronavirus pandemic and the oil crisis. Image: Financial Times
Market Reactions to 20 Middle East Crisis Events Stocks and oil tend to to perform well following Middle East crisis events. Image: CNBC
Global GDP and Brent Crude Oil Price High oil prices can cause recessions. Image: MarketWatch
Major Oil Supply Disruptions As a reminder, disruptions in the oil market have always led to higher oil prices. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has improved significantly since the April market turmoil, driven by trade-related optimism, but it has yet to reach the extreme bullishness that typically signals market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage Hedge fund gross leverage remains extremely elevated, while net leverage fell sharply during recent market turmoil but has since rebounded significantly, though it is not yet back to highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
G10 FX Carry Trade Index The Bank of Japan’s recent actions caused market turmoil termed an “ugly deleveraging event,” reflecting ongoing economic challenges in Japan. Navigating a post-deflationary landscape adds complexity to the situation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy