The SARS Analog – Virus Outbreaks and Global Markets

The SARS Analog – Virus Outbreaks and Global Markets The chart shows the SARS analog (2002 vs. 2020), highlighting the S&P 500 Index, the MSCI China Index, emerging markets vs. U.S. EPS and the CRB Raw Industrials Index. Image: Fidelity Investments

A Weaker U.S. Dollar in 2020?

A Weaker U.S. Dollar in 2020? This chart suggests that the U.S. dollar could decline this year, as long as the Fed keeps pumping money into the banking system. Image: Fidelity Investments

North America Private Equity Assets

North America Private Equity Assets Private equity keeps on growing and now represents an important part of the economy. Image: Financial Times

U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence

U.S. Consumer Confidence and CEO Confidence The trade war keeps weighing on CEO confidence, which is near record lows, while consumer confidence has remained relatively strong. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Earnings Estimate Progression

Earnings Estimate Progression This chart shows the earnings estimate progression since 2013. For this year, the consensus estimate of EPS growth is currently around 1.9%, and around 9.7% for 2020. Image: Fidelity Investments

Valuation: Utilities vs. Tech vs. S&P 500

Valuation: Utilities vs. Tech vs. S&P 500 Nice chart showing the valuation of utilities vs. Tech and the S&P 500. Currently, utilities are valued at 19.9x forward EPS, tech at 18.7x, and the S&P 500 at 16.4x Image: Fidelity Investments

S&P 500 Index Price Average Before and After Initial Fed Rate Cut

S&P 500 Index Price Average Before and After Initial Fed Rate Cut Historically, the S&P 500 Index has risen in 13 out of 16 cases after an initial Fed rate cut (since 1954). The divergence between the S&P 500 and EPS suggests that the market doesn’t care too much about other things, as long as…

Lumber Prices Are a Great Leading Indicator of Future Earnings

Lumber Prices Are a Great Leading Indicator of Future Earnings This chart suggests that lumber prices give a good forecast of where the stock market is going. When lumber prices fall over a 12-month period, then EPS follows 6 months later. Although there is no immediate recession on the horizon, a market downturn is possible. Image:…