10-Year S&P 500 Total Excess Return Over U.S. Treasury Notes vs. CAPE When CAPE valuations exceed 30, long-term buy-and-hold investors can generally benefit more from purchasing 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds than U.S. stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Secular Bull Markets vs. Secular Bear Markets – S&P 500 / Gold Despite occasional market fluctuations and concerns about overvaluation, the S&P 500 is still in a secular bull market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Valuation Metric S&P 500 valuation metrics remain elevated by historical standards Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Current Valuation Relative to Long-term Average The S&P 500 Index remains historically expensive. Image: Truist
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 U.S. small business confidence is deteriorating, which does not bode well for U.S. small-caps, but relative valuations remain attractive. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Normalized P/E vs. Subsequent Annualized Returns The current S&P 500 valuation suggests that equity investors should expect 6%/year over the next 10 years. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 and Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Should investors favor U.S. dividend-paying stocks as valuations are attractive? Image: Richardson Wealth
U.S. Inflation Rate and S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio, YoY Change (Leading Indicator) The change in U.S. inflation rate tends to lead U.S. equity valuation by 6 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
PE to VIX Ratio and S&P 500 6-Month Forward Return Higher volatiliy and lower valuations typically align with higher expected returns. Image: Richardson Wealth
Yield Gap – S&P 500 EPS Yield vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Relative U.S. equity valuations are still attractive vs. history. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research