Real S&P 500 vs. Valuations (CAPE) The timing of your investment journey can significantly impact your future outcomes. Even with the Fed’s interventions, recovering from a bear market can take an extended period after speculative “booms.” Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Since 1790 The trajectory and duration of the U.S. bond bear market can be influenced by factors such as inflation, economic growth, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
How Long and How Far Away Are the Major Equity Indices from their All-Time Highs Japan’s Nikkei has reached a new high for the first time since 1989. The journey to recovery from a bear market can sometimes take a considerable amount of time. Image: Deutsche Bank
Real S&P 500 Index and Periods to Breakeven The timing of your investment journey can significantly impact your future outcomes, and even with the Fed’s interventions, recovering from a bear market can take a considerable amount of time. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Home Price Forecasts Morgan Stanley projects a 3% decline in U.S. home prices for 2024. However, their bull case scenario predicts a 5% increase, while the bear case scenario anticipates an 8% drop. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 When Up 10% or More at the End of June The sell-off in U.S. stocks may not imply a long-lasting bearish period, but rather a temporary dip that could reverse in late October, as years with notable gains in the first half tend to bottom around that time. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar and Policy Rate: Fed Minus G10 Excluding U.S. Should investors turn bearish on the U.S. dollar? Image: Alpine Macro
Duration and Magnitude of Major Nonrecessionary S&P 500 Index Declines According to Morgan Stanley, the current bear market rally in U.S. equities remains within historical norms. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Fair Value According to BofA, the fair value of the S&P 500 is 3,911 by year-end 2023 (bear case, based on the most bearish model). Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and Last Hike in Federal Reserve Bank Rate Hiking Cycles The last Fed rate hike is not necessarily bearish for U.S. stocks over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Months of Yield Curve Inversion Before Recession BofA remains bearish as a recession in the United States is becoming increasingly likely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy