Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown

Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The rally has made U.S. equities harder to chase. Upside looks limited, while the risk of a pullback is building as valuations stretch. The risk-reward now looks less compelling. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Bank Reserves and S&P 500

Bank Reserves and S&P 500 J.P. Morgan suggests that Fed-injected liquidity is not the reason for the rise in the valuation of risk assets. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 PE Level vs. Average 12-month Return

S&P 500 PE Level vs. Average 12-month Return The chart shows how market valuation affects future equity returns since 1930. You may also like “Why the Stock Market Valuation Matters Before a Recession?“ Image: Richardson Wealth

Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%…

Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14%… Six months ago, the S&P 500 was overvalued by more than 14% before the market crash, through our advanced stock market valuation model. Near the same level today and within 1% of a record high, the US stock market remains slightly overvalued by 7.8%.…