S&P 500 Returns Around the End of Fed Hiking Cycles In recent history, U.S. stocks tend to rally if there is no recession following the end of Fed hiking cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
WTI Oil Price vs. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) Oil prices tend to lead U.S. CPI inflation by 6 months. Image: Alpine Macro
Dividend Yield Global ex-U.S. equities continue to offer higher dividend yields than U.S. equities. Image: Topdown Charts
Russell 2000 / S&P 500 vs. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Leading Indicator) The performance of U.S. small caps relative to the S&P 500 suggests a decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Deposits, All Commercial Banks Will U.S. banks continue to experience a decline in deposits. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Price-to-Sales Ratio U.S. equities remain expensive by historical standards, despite the correction. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Bank Cash As a Share of Total Assets U.S. banks have plenty of cash on hand and most banks are in very good shape. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Annual % Change vs. Liquidity Measure Shrinking excess liquidity remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
LEI 6-Month ROC vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change The 6-month annual rate of change of the Leading Economic Index is highly correlated with S&P 500 earnings growth. Should U.S. equity investors remain cautious? Image: Real Investment Advice
Housing – New One Family Houses Sold Total NSA U.S. new home sales rose 7.2% in January, which was better than expected. Image: The Daily Shot