Chinese 5-Year Benchmark Yield Leads Global Manufacturing PMI Great chart suggesting that the Chinese 5-year benchmark yield leads global manufacturing PMI by 18 months. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Sentiment Index Hit a 15-Year High Last time, it hit this level was in May 1997 and January 2004. That’s good news, because this level suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon.
US Long-Term Mortgage Rates Decline: 30-Year Average 4.10% & 15-Year Average 3.57% Why US long-term mortgage rates decline? Mortgage costs are influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield which was lower this week, because the trade war between the United States and China pushes investors moving money from stocks to bonds. Bond yields fall as prices rise.…
Greek’s 5-Year Bond Yields Have Fallen Below US 5-Year Government Bond Yield Which one would you choose? Greek bonds or US counterparts? This is a great example of financial market madness. Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” That’s true! Greece has spent around half its time in default on its…
Real Returns in Governement Bonds over the Last 5 Years Real returns in U.S. governement bonds are negative over the last 5 years, as in many other countries. Image: Deutsche Bank
45 Years of Asset Bubbles The parabolic move of Bitcoin in a short period of time has pushed it into bubble territory. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Return Attribution Past 5 Years The performance of the S&P 500 is largely driven by stocks in the technology and e-commerce sectors. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
Expected Real Return of U.S. Equities and U.S. Bond Over Next 5 Years This chart suggests a real return of around 5% p.a. on U.S. equities over the next 5 years vs. -5% for U.S. Treasury bonds. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Probability of a U.S. Recession as Currently Priced Across Asset Classes Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 implies a 57% chance of recession, while 5-year U.S. Treasuries imply a 86% chance of recession. Image: J.P. Morgan