Most Important Variables When Forecasting Real GDP Search trends are very different between China (manufacturing industry) and the USA/Eurozone (consumer), when forecasting real GDP. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
How “NO-DEAL Brexit” Would Affect the World’s Economy? What could a no-deal Brexit mean for developing countries? Main losers if there is a no-deal Brexit: European Union and Turkey. Main winners if there is a no-deal Brexit: China, USA, Japan, Thailand, South Africa, India, Brazil. Image: howmuch.net, UNCTAD
Global Earnings since 2006 This chart shows global earnings since 2006 (USA, Emerging Markets, Japan and Europe). As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” This chart below illustrates it well since 2006. You may also like “Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run.” Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
International Liquidity by Country – Total Reserves Excluding Gold, U.S. Dollars USA holds $115 billion and China holds over $3 trillion in reserves. Image: howmuch.net
Average Number of Hours Spent Using the Internet per Day via any Device The time spent per day on the internet in the USA is 6H30. Image: Hootsuite Click the Image to Enlarge
Central Bank Balance Sheets vs. Global Equities Central banks do influence some asset prices, but correlation is not causation. Image: DoubleLine
How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…
Despite Full Employment, Why Real GDP Should Stay Above Potential GDP? Because monetary and fiscal policies continue to support growth in the USA. So, real GDP could remain close to potential GDP. It also suggests a recession is probably not imminent.
Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP
Kyle Bass talks China, markets, and the Fed Kyle Bass, CIO of Hayman Capital Management, talks with Brian Sullivan about the USA-China relationship & trade deal, and the Fed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLqDyi-apDY